The year 2022 is now one for the record books. So far, 2023 has started with a whimper. The stock market continues its mostly downward projection. Bear market anyone? Here are my 2023 predictions for Valencia and Spain as a whole.
I am not an expert. I am merely thinking out loud based on what I’ve seen and heard after living in Valencia for the past five years. You can take it all with a grain of salt if you like, but l am never wrong!🤣
Predictions for Valencia in 2023:
Valencia will get more crowded:
This is inevitable. Several major magazines, including Forbes, have deemed Valencia as the top place to live and the trend of people moving here in droves will continue. Prior to Valencia, Lisbon was touted as the place to be, and luckily, still draws more people than here and l for one, hope that keeps happening :-).
It becomes a double-edged sword. You want to keep it the way it is now despite the fact that we are responsible for changing the way it was.
More resentment from the locals:
It makes sense. Because of the fact that more people are moving into the city, the locals, are in turn, being forced to move farther out to find cheaper places. The average salary can not compete with the gobs of money that foreigners bring in. The next time you visit the bank, observe how you’re treated versus a local. This happens everywhere, not just in Spain.
Housing prices will continue to increase:
Real estate has always been a hobby of mine, so even though l am not in the market to purchase, l still keep up with the prices. I’ve written before about the expat’s impact on real estate, so l won’t do it again.
The prices will keep rising as a direct result of the above reason. When you think about it, it doesn’t really make sense as prices are falling in other places, but supply and demand. Since there is no centralized system here, people can just ask for outrageous amounts and hey, you can’t blame them if there are suckers…ahem, buyers willing to pay.
Remember, if you tell someone you’re willing to pay up to 350,000 euros for a flat, they will show you places that are priced as such, but only worth half the price. You have to do your due diligence.
On the other hand, l think the prices of holiday homes will fall or hold steady as more British people sell off their places because of the 90-day rule. I’ll tell you what? I would be really upset if they were exempt (something that is being considered from what l read).
The whole frigging world has to abide by this 90-days in, 90-days crap. If they lift it for them, they need to lift it for everyone. They are not special. Welcome to the real world. For people looking to live in resort towns, a bargain could be yours.
Higher prices for flat rentals:
Ask anyone who’s been here for more than a year and they will tell you about the madness and frustration of trying to find an apartment for rent. Landlords can’t wait to have previous renters leave because they can increase the prices and get someone in there pretty quickly.
Granted, this happens mostly in the ex-pat areas, but it’s slowly spreading outwards as people are priced out of those popular neighborhoods.
It is no longer unusual for landlords to ask for six months or even a year’s worth of rent upfront. Because they can. Because they will get it. Legally, the deposit should be one month’s rent and up to two if furnished. I wouldn’t pay more than that.
We’ve paid a year’s worth of rent before and it worked out great. He didn’t even ask for it. We met him and knew. He did everything by the book and was responsive and we got our deposit (registered to the Generalisat) without any problem.
I probably wouldn’t recommend that for everyone, but it can work. Why did we move after the year? The place was too big for just the two of us.
Higher prices for everything:
You name it, and it’s up. Grocery prices have increased tremendously in the past few months and there doesn’t seem to be an end to it. Some things we have seen an increase in price twice a week.
Here is an updated video l did on the same products, at the same supermarket that had originally cost €50. Not anymore, and this was done a few months ago, so you can just imagine how much more it is now.
Restaurant prices are up. Energy prices are way up. This is reflected in the utility bills. This is happening everywhere in the world so we are not special. I think it’s here to stay. The government said they might cap grocery prices in some way this year, but nothing has been announced yet.
I wonder if the rapid increases have been because of this “cap”. Raise everything till it’s capped and we still get stuck paying more.
The cries of recession grow louder even though some have firmly believed that we’ve been in one for a while now. I am not sure why they hesitate to own it. This feels like 2008 to me and it was not a fun time.
More tourists and Digital Nomads:
Spain is still a bargain and l think people will continue to take advantage of that. Travel is a luxury, and with people tightening their belts, it will be one of the things struck off the list. Once it becomes clearer how the energy crisis pans out before the summer, it will have an impact on travel.
I think a lot of the tourists would be from Europe because of cheaper flights. There will also be more people on research trips to see if Valencia would be a good fit for them.
The digital nomad visa that has been approved but not finalized might be a game changer. I say might because l think they are really, really late in the game. A whole lot of other countries have done it and so they have to play catch-up. If the minimum income is high, people might not qualify. I am curious to see what will happen with that, to be honest.
Wrapping up the 2023 predictions for Valencia Spain:
The year is shaping up to be a very interesting one. What do you think of my predictions? Do you think they are way off? Are there any other things that l might have missed? As for us, we will still keep marching on, marveling at our luck in ending up in this fabulous place.
Fasten your seatbelt. It’s going to be a bumpy one :-).